The powetrain roadmap of Finnish automotive sector describes the future development of different fuel options in the passenger car, van, truck and bus fleet.

Plug­-in hybrids open the path for electrification

In the roadmap for the automotive sector, electrification will proceed rapidly in the next few years in the first registrations of new cars. Electrification is on its way on all fronts as all-electric cars, rechargeable hybrids and various electric hybrid drivetrains become more common. The range and availability of rechargeable cars will improve considerably towards the end of the decade and purchase prices will gradually approach the price of internal combustion engine cars. The main factor in this development is the eu's target values for average CO2 emissions for car manufacturers, which require an increase in the share of electric cars.

The share of electrically-chargeable passenger cars in first registrations grew to around 18 per cent last year – the share of plug-in hybrids grew to around 14 per cent and that of all-electric cars to around 4 per cent. The share of chargeable cars is estimated to increase to just over 40 per cent by 2025 in the forecast of automotive sector.  Plug-in hybrids are in the early part of the decade more popular than all-electric cars, but the popularity of all-electric cars will grow especially after 2025.

Electrification does not require a tightening of taxation on road transport

The updated roadmap for the automotive sector estimates that there is just over 600 000 electrically-chargeable passenger cars in Finland at the end of the decade as a result of current technological development and incentives. However, the increase requires large investments in charging infrastructure.

"Electrification is progressing in the car market without changes in fuel or consumption taxes. At current tax levels, the operating costs of electric cars are already clearly lower than those of cars with internal combustion engines. The number of electric and gas vehicles could be further increased by reducing the registration tax in order to speed up the circulation of the vehicle fleet and a long-term investment in charging infrastructure," says Managing Director Tero Kallio from the Association of Automobile Industry in Finland.

Internal combustion cars will be the mainstream of the car fleet in the next decade

In 2030, there will be about 2.2 million internal combustion engine cars in the passenger car fleet. Because the scale of propulsion in the car fleet is slow, rapid price changes or depreciation are unlikely for new or conventional propulsion cars. The technical and economic life of cars in Finland is the longest in Europe.

“The car fleet circulates in Finland slower than in 20 years, so changes in the vehicle fleet are slow-moving. Although the number of electric cars will increase to about 600,000 cars, about 80 percent of the car fleet will still be powered by an internal combustion engine in 2030. Changes of powertrains of the vehicle fleet is more a logical evolution than a rapid and uncontrolled revolution,” says Pekka Rissa, Managing Director of Finnish Central Organization for Motor Trade and Repairs.

Vans and small delivery trucks are still in the early stages of electrification

Also in the van fleet, electrification is expected to start gradually in the next few years. With vans and delivery trucks, the range of models for electric cars has been narrow and the share of electric cars in registrations is still just over one per cent. By 2025, the share of rechargeable cars is expected to grow to about 17 percent. The share of gas is also expected to increase in the next few years. The spread of all-electric cars will accelerate after 2025.

In trucks hydrogen is expected to be introduced as early as the end of this decade

For trucks with a total weight of more than 16 tonnes, renewable diesel will play a major role in reducing emissions, as electricity and gas will continue to spread slowly in the next few years due to higher purchase prices, range restrictions and limited distribution infrastructure. Hybrid drivetrains combined with diesel engine reduce emissions of trucks and improve the energy efficiency of the fleet.

Gas is becoming more common fuel for trucks over 16 tons during the forthcoming years. Liquefied biogas and natural gas (LNG) are potential alternatives to diesel, as the range of liquefied gas is almost as long as of diesel with a single refueling. Improving distribution infrastructure of gas and purchase incentives will help increase the number of gas trucks.

The spread of electric trucks is curbed by price and the need for battery capacity, as the HGV combinations used in Finland are larger than in Central Europe. Instead of battery electric trucks, fuel cells and hydrogen are assessed to become more widespread in the second half of this decade. However, changes in the truck fleet are slow. In 2030, more than 95 per cent of Finland's approximately 100,000 trucks will still be diesel-powered.

The electrification of buses is faster than other types of vehicles

The share of alternative fuels in bus and coach registrations is growing relatively faster, as public procurement will focus primarily on electric buses in the coming years. Legislation on emission requirements for public procurement, which will enter into force in August, will accelerate demand for electric buses in particular. In local transport, there are efficient charging solutions for electric buses, the use of the electric buses can be adapted to the charging needs and the operating costs are clearly lower than the diesel buses.

Further information

Article in YLE News

Roadmap of powertrains (In Finnish)

Tero Kallio, Managing Director, Association of Automobile Industry in Finland, Tel. +358 40 729 4513, tero.kallio@autotuojat.fi

Pekka Rissa, Managing Director, Finnish Central Organization for Motor Trade and Repairs, Tel. +358 500 417 300, pekka.rissa@akl.fi

The Finnish Information Centre of Automobile Sector is a service and information centre providing information of road transport, automobile trade and manufacturing, as well as the car repair and inspection industries and car recycling in Finland. Information Centre is a joint organisation of the Association of Automobile Industry in Finland and Finnish Central Organization for Motor Trades and Repairs.