Transport-related emission sources and trends

Transport accounts for just under one fifth of all greenhouse gas emissions. Road transport’s share of greenhouse gas emissions is approximately 16 per cent with the LULUCF sector taken into account and approximately 19 per cent with LULUCF emissions excluded.

In 2020, total annual emissions from domestic road transport are estimated at 10.4 million tonnes. Passenger transport accounts for approximately 6.5 million tonnes and goods transport for approximately 3.3 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions in 2020.

The most significant sources of emissions are cars and lorries, which also account for the largest share of passenger-kilometres and tonne-kilometres. Car traffic amounted to 41.6 billion kilometres in 20191. Lorry traffic amounted to a total of 3.3 billion kilometres in 2019, of which approximately 1.9 billion kilometres were driven by lorries with trailers and 0.6 billion kilometres by lorries without a trailer. Lorries account for approximately 85 per cent of the volume of goods transported in Finland.

Approximately half of all emissions from cars are attributable to short, local journeys and approximately half to longer journeys. Most of the vehicle-kilometres and, therefore, emissions as well are attributable to long recreational car journeys and commuting.

The majority of lorry traffic is attributable to lorries weighing more than 64 tonnes. Changes in the dimensions and weights of vehicles in the past decade have created a clear shift in the percentages of different weight categories while also reducing the total number of kilometres driven by lorries, thanks to larger load sizes. Forestry, construction, the metal industry and the retail sector stand out as the most significant sources of road transport emissions.

Transport-related emission reduction targets

According to Finland’s national energy and climate strategy, the target is to halve the 2005 figure of emissions from transport by 2030. The pursuit of the target is a step towards carbon-neutral transport. According to the Government Programme adopted in 2020, Finland aims to be carbon neutral by 2035. Based on the scenarios explored in the context of the carbon-neutrality target, this would require Finland’s transport to be carbon neutral by 2045.

If the target of halving emissions were to be applied to all modes of transport equally, carbon dioxide emissions from road transport would need to be capped at 5.9 million tonnes in 2030 to achieve the target. The current trend has carbon dioxide emissions from road transport amounting to approximately 7.4 million tonnes in 2030, which means that approximately 1.4 million tonnes of cuts need to be found by new means. Provided that the 2030 target is met, a further approximately 3.6 million tonnes will need to be cut by new means to achieve the target set for 2045.

The latest emissions forecast already factors in numerous actions to reduce emissions in the current decade. It takes into account, among other things, growing biofuel distribution obligations and the roll-out of low-emission vehicle technology. However, the change resulting from more modern cars is not expected to be as rapid in Finland as across the EU on average.

Path to achieving emission reduction targets set for 2030

Achieving the 2030 emission targets requires a reduction of approximately 1.4 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions compared to current projections. The roadmap to 2030 sets out actions capable of achieving a total reduction of approximately 1.4 million tonnes by 2030. Economic policy is estimated to deliver a total of 0.5 million tonnes, transport system and infrastructure actions a total of 0.4 million tonnes, technological development a total of 0.3 million tonnes and other regulation a total of 0.2 million tonnes of this figure.

The roadmap proposes, among other things, to shift the focus of taxation from registration to vehicle tax in order to accelerate the uptake of modern vehicles and the roll-out of more energy-efficient vehicle technology. Purchase incentives and scrapping schemes help to promote this trend by encouraging new car purchases. The roll-out of HCT vehicles and investments in HCT-compatible transport infrastructure are key to lowering emissions from road transport. The digitalisation of transport, such as driver assistance systems and new logistics management solutions, also plays a big role. The roll-out of electric buses significantly reduces emissions from bus transport.

Actions targeting the transport system mostly relate to the development of transport services and especially public transport as well as the promotion of walking and cycling. Road maintenance is also important especially in respect of emissions from heavy goods vehicles. In terms of technological development, there is significant potential in remote services that reduce the need for physical movement and therefore lower traffic volumes.

Path to achieving emission reduction targets set for 2045

Provided that the target of halving emissions by 2030 is met, a further approximately 3.6 million tonnes will need to be cut by new means to achieve the target set for 2045 in light of the current trend. Carbon neutrality refers to achieving net zero carbon dioxide emissions, which in practice requires a switch to renewable or carbon-neutral sources of energy throughout the transport sector. Synthetic fuels that can be produced by carbon-neutral means offer huge potential by 2035. Technological development and transport services play a particularly big role in the additional measures that must be taken between 2030 and 2045.

In practice, the target set for 2045 is so ambitious that almost all known ways of lowering emissions must be considered. The impacts projected for the year 2045 are rough estimates, as the external environment is liable to change unpredictably in the next few decades. Some of the actions proposed for the 2020s will still be relevant in the 2030s. However, the nature of purchase incentives for low-emissions company cars will change and the subsidisation of vans and lorries is likely to focus primarily on fuel cell vehicles. Scrapping schemes will also play an important part in accelerating the phasing out of vehicles from the 2000s in the 2030s. Urbanisation creates potential for greater use of public transport, especially if towns and cities develop in a way that promotes concentrated public transport systems. Charging infrastructure development incentives will still contribute to expanding the network of charging stations in the 2030s.

Synthetic fuel distribution obligations will be an important new tool for promoting carbon-neutral fuels after 2030. Digitalisation and the introduction of new remote services will create potential for reducing the need for physical movement even more than in previous decades. Digitalisation will also make goods transport more efficient by enabling platooning across more of the existing road network and by shifting driver assistance technology more towards autonomous transport and optimised fuel consumption.